Coronavirus Statistics: Tracking The Epidemic In New York

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Color-enhanced scanning electron micrograph of a cell infected with SARS-CoV-2 particles, isolated from a patient sample. SARS-CoV-2 virus particles are the small, roughly-spherical structures, found on the surface of the cell, which is exhibiting elongated, rod-shaped cell projections. Image captured at the NIAID Research Facility (IRF) in fort Detrick, Maryland. Credit: NIAID

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Shade-enhanced scanning electron micrograph of a cell contaminated with SARS-CoV-2 particles, remoted from a affected person pattern. SARS-CoV-2 virus particles are the small, roughly-spherical constructions, discovered on the floor of the cell, which is exhibiting elongated, rod-shaped cell projections. Picture captured on the NIAID Analysis Facility (IRF) in fort Detrick, Maryland. Credit score: NIAID


NIAID

The Gothamist/WNYC newsroom is utilizing statistics to form our each day protection of the COVID-19 epidemic. This text explores COVID statistics in New York Metropolis, then appears to be like at New York State, and at last compares New York to different areas and appears at a projection of the longer term.

Please ship any questions or feedback to knowledge@gothamist.com.

A observe on dates: New York Metropolis’s most-current knowledge is launched on a 3-day lag. It’s because the Division of Well being assigns each case, hospitalization, and demise to the date it occurred, and experiences take time to return in, be collated, and assigned. In addition they revise the information for older dates as new knowledge is available in, so numbers for every day might change over time.

Latest Tendencies

Latest Tendencies

This set of charts evaluations main COVID statistics in New York Metropolis during the last 90 days. After months of low numbers of infections, town’s positivity charge started to extend in September, pushed by clusters in Brooklyn and Queens. After a lull in October, positivity actually started to rise in earnest initially of November, due primarily to wider neighborhood unfold. All through the interval, the variety of exams performed within the metropolis continued to rise, which additionally contributed to raised detection of latest instances. Hospitalizations and deaths additionally elevated throughout this time, however to nowhere close to the document numbers town noticed in April.

This chart helps clarify the progress of the epidemic geographically over the past 90 days. Although all boroughs rose throughout this time, you possibly can see the primary peak was concentrated primarily in Brooklyn, Queens, and Staten Island, whereas the second peak has affected each borough, and was significantly concentrated in Staten Island.

This map exhibits the present positivity charges for every NYC neighborhood during the last week, to provide a greater sense of the place COVID is at present concentrated geographically within the metropolis. For complete instances over the complete course of the epidemic, see the map under within the Optimistic Circumstances part of this text.

We use this scatterplot to assist us establish ZIP Codes of concern every week. Look within the upper-right quadrant: these are the ZIP codes which have excessive positivity and have proven development of their positivity during the last week: ie. they’ve an energetic and rising outbreak.

Optimistic Circumstances

Optimistic Circumstances and Testing

Testing started in earnest in early March, however for weeks was restricted in availability to essentially the most symptomatic instances. This led to very excessive positivity charges in April, which steadily declined because the epidemic was introduced underneath management by social distancing measures, and extra individuals have been in a position to get exams. Testing continued to develop each month since, which allowed town to identify the start of the second wave in September, when it was nonetheless confined to a couple neighborhoods.

Queens and Brooklyn have bigger populations than the opposite boroughs, so they have an inclination to have extra instances, however when normalized for inhabitants, Staten Island and the Bronx have typically seen extra positives every week. That is significantly true through the second wave, with Staten Island outstripping the opposite boroughs.

Beginning on 4/1, the New York Division of Well being began to launch constructive instances by Zip Code data. You possibly can see totals for the complete epidemic, in addition to potential demographic associations, at our bigger model of the map.

We have charted the constructive case zip code knowledge in a scatterplot. On common, the decrease earnings, older, and extra various a neighborhood is, the extra constructive instances it’s going to have. Bronchial asthma charges and bigger family measurement additionally present a constructive affiliation with instances. Inhabitants density exhibits a unfavourable affiliation with instances, primarily as a result of Manhattan, the place ZIP codes are densest, has had decrease case charges to date within the epidemic. Median age of a neighborhood exhibits no clear affiliation, most likely as a result of median age is insignificant in comparison with the opposite elements. You possibly can study particular person neighborhoods and numerous demographic elements on our bigger chart.

Hospitalizations

Hospitalizations

Over time, severe instances of COVID will put sufferers within the hospital, and as soon as they’re unable to breath on their very own, into the Intensive Care Unit. After a determined battle to construct emergency hospital beds in April, it turned out that town’s present beds have been principally ample, and within the months since, spare capability has hovered round 20%.

Through the first wave of the epidemic, the Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn had extra new hospitalizations per capita, however as a result of Brooklyn and Queens are bigger, that they had extra complete new hospitalizations.

The perfect measure of a hospital’s skill to answer further COVID instances is spare ICU mattress capability, as a result of essentially the most severe instances require remedy solely obtainable within the Intensive Care Unit. The map above tracks capability obtainable utilizing “staffed grownup” ICU beds, ie. these grownup beds which might be each obtainable and have workers to attend them. It’s not uncommon for a hospital to goal to maintain most of its ICU beds full, as a result of staffing empty beds value cash, however charges near 100% can sign a hospital is near being overwhelmed with instances.

Hospitalizations

Deaths

COVID has a fatality charge between 0.5% and 1%, and New York Metropolis has suffered extra deaths than some other metropolis within the nation. On April 14th, the NYC Division of Well being started reporting “possible deaths”- individuals who had COVID listed as a explanation for demise on their demise certificates, along with deaths of individuals with confirmed COVID exams. This raised the variety of COVID deaths within the metropolis by about 40%. This nonetheless might not embody all COVID deaths, as extra seemingly unrelated deaths might finally be categorized as brought on by COVID. From February 1 by October 2, the CDC estimates there have been about 26,000 extra deaths within the metropolis, in comparison with historic averages.

Through the first wave, the Bronx had a better per-capita demise charge than the remainder of the boroughs, however as a result of Brooklyn and Queens have extra inhabitants, that they had the best demise totals. Through the second wave, deaths have to date been fairly low in comparison with what occurred in April, however Staten Island has been barely above the opposite boroughs on a per-capita foundation.

On Could 18th, town launched knowledge on deaths by zipcode. Neighborhoods with essentially the most instances tended to have the very best numbers of deaths, however the maps of instances and deaths don’t coincide precisely.

We have created a set of scatterplots exploring the correlations between deaths and demographic elements, throughout the NYC zip codes. On the whole, ZIP codes that are poorer, extra various, or have bigger households or larger bronchial asthma charges, have larger charges of COVID deaths. Inhabitants density is negatively related to deaths, primarily as a result of denser ZIP codes in Manhattan have much less deaths. A ZIP code’s median age doesn’t appear to have a powerful correlation with deaths, most likely as a result of different elements outweigh that affiliation. You possibly can learn extra about our findings in a publish on Gothamist.

Demographics

Demographics

Every day the New York Metropolis Division of Well being releases demographic knowledge on COVID-19 deaths. Nearly all of those that die of COVID are aged 65+ and/or these with pre-existing well being situations, which the DOH defines as: “Diabetes, Lung Illness, Most cancers, Immunodeficiency, Coronary heart Illness, Hypertension, Bronchial asthma, Kidney Illness, and GI/Liver Illness.” Observe: these demographics embody “confirmed” COVID instances solely, and exclude “possible” deaths.

Older individuals, poorer individuals, males, and African-American and Latino New Yorkers, have been recognized, hospitalized, and died at a lot larger charges than different teams.

Antibodies

Antibodies

After an individual has survived an encounter with coronavirus, their physique produces antibodies, that are detectable on a take a look at for a interval of weeks or months, however which fade over time. After the large outbreak in April, and with restricted antibody testing, charges have been very excessive; as extra individuals have been in a position to get testing and antibodies from earlier publicity started to fade, the positivity charge settled in at round 20% of all antibody exams carried out in New York Metropolis. We have no idea if antibodies confer complete or partial immunity to the virus, or if that’s the case, how lengthy that immunity lasts. The human immune system is advanced, and will construct different defenses to coronavirus as soon as uncovered, reminiscent of T-cell response, which isn’t measured in an antibody take a look at.

This map exhibits the whole outcomes of all antibody exams performed by ZIP code, with neighborhoods that skilled the very best numbers of constructive instances usually having the very best antibody charges.

Evaluating NYC

Evaluating New York Metropolis to Different Exhausting Hit Areas

New York was the world epicenter of the COVID outbreak in April, outpacing even essentially the most affected cities in Italy and Spain- within the months because the epidemic has waned within the Northeast and intensified within the South and West.

Sources: Ministry of Well being Statistics Brazil, NYS, DOH of LA, Maricopa County, Harris County, and Florida.

COVID in NYS

COVID in New York State

About 42% of New York State residents reside in New York Metropolis, so COVID stats for the complete state will are likely to mirror town’s stats. That is true for positivity, which exhibits the identical giant enhance in April when testing was restricted, and for complete exams, which have risen steadily since then. Nevertheless, when constructive exams, you see that through the second wave, the state suffered a extra pronounced rise than town, due to giant second-wave outbreaks in upstate counties. Equally, the rise in hospitalizations and deaths in New York State is extra pronounced than in New York Metropolis, due to these upstate outbreaks.

Observe on dates: in distinction to New York Metropolis, New York State releases its knowledge with no lag, by assigning each take a look at, hospitalization, and demise to the day the report got here in, which implies that due to reporting delays, for the state knowledge, every day within the knowledge blends instances, hospitalizations, and deaths that really occurred over a interval of latest days.

Sources: for this New York State part, we’re getting our knowledge from the New York State Division of Well being, partially by way of the COVID Monitoring Venture.

This chart means that you can take a look at positivity charges, new instances, and complete exams for every county in New York State. Observe that through the first wave, counties in and round New York Metropolis confirmed pronounced upticks, however through the second wave, we’re seeing extra counties upstate with traces transferring within the improper course.

This map exhibits the present scenario in every of the New York State counties, coloured by per capita inhabitants, to permit comparisons between counties.

What’s going to occur subsequent?

What Will Occur Subsequent?




Line chart that projects COVID-19 related deaths in New York State. The x-axis is dates from Jan 1 to Nov 1. The y-axis is deaths per day in increments of 100,000 up to 1,000,000. There is a solid line for the deaths per day that have happened and a dotted line that projects deaths per day for the coming weeks. According to this projection, we hit the peak in April and should be trending downwards. For early June the deaths are projected at 100 a day and trending down to almost 0 in July into August.

There are lots of fashions that predict the way forward for the outbreak, however Governor Cuomo has repeatedly praised the Institute for Well being Metrics and Analysis’s COVID-19 mannequin. Of their 1/15 replace, the mannequin predicted rising deaths by the tip of January, adopted by decline, with complete deaths of fifty,173 by Could in New York State.

You will discover a number of different fashions on the CDC’s web site.

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