Coronavirus Statistics: Tracking The Epidemic In New York June 2021

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The Gothamist/WNYC newsroom is utilizing statistics to form our day by day protection of the COVID-19 epidemic. This text explores COVID statistics in New York Metropolis, then seems to be at New York State, and eventually compares New York to different areas and appears at a projection of the long run.

Please ship any questions or feedback to knowledge@gothamist.com.

A word on dates: New York Metropolis’s most-current knowledge is launched on a 3-day lag. It is because the Division of Well being assigns each case, hospitalization, and dying to the date it occurred, and experiences take time to return in, be collated, and assigned. Additionally they revise the information for older dates as new knowledge is available in, so numbers for every day could change over time.

Latest Traits

Latest Traits

This set of charts opinions main COVID statistics in New York Metropolis over the past 90 days. After months of low numbers of infections, town’s positivity charge started to extend in September, pushed by clusters in Brooklyn and Queens. After a lull in October, positivity actually started to rise in earnest originally of November, due primarily to wider neighborhood unfold. All through the interval, the variety of assessments performed within the metropolis continued to rise, which additionally contributed to raised detection of recent instances. Hospitalizations and deaths additionally elevated throughout this time, however to nowhere close to the file numbers town noticed in April.

This chart helps clarify the progress of the epidemic geographically over the last 90 days. Although all boroughs rose throughout this time, you possibly can see the primary peak was concentrated primarily in Brooklyn, Queens, and Staten Island, whereas the second peak has affected each borough, and was significantly concentrated in Staten Island.

This map exhibits the present positivity charges for every NYC neighborhood over the past week, to provide a greater sense of the place COVID is presently concentrated geographically within the metropolis. For whole instances over your entire course of the epidemic, see the map beneath within the Optimistic Instances part of this text.

We use this scatterplot to assist us determine ZIP Codes of concern every week. Look within the upper-right quadrant: these are the ZIP codes which have excessive positivity and have proven development of their positivity over the past week: ie. they’ve an energetic and rising outbreak.

Latest Traits

Vaccinations

New York Metropolis has not too long ago begun to offer vaccine statistics on the NYC Division of Well being website. Vaccinations have been concentrated in wealthier, much less various ZIP codes.

The town is administering vaccine doses by way of precedence teams, beginning with first responders after which transferring on to the aged and other people with related well being situations. About 20% of those doses are going to individuals who dwell exterior town, however who may fit within the metropolis.

Estimates of the requirement for herd immunity, the purpose at which the virus can not unfold successfully in a neighborhood, differ among the many scientific neighborhood, however 70% of inhabitants immune is a generally cited determine. Herd immunity could be reached by vaccination, in addition to by pure publicity and survival of the virus, so it’s doubtless that town must totally vaccinate lower than 70% of the whole inhabitants to realize it, due to the excessive quantity of pure publicity throughout the first and second waves of the virus. Nonetheless, new variants of COVID may evade a few of this immunity, and we don’t but understand how lengthy both pure or vaccinated immunity lasts.

Optimistic Instances

Optimistic Instances and Testing

Testing started in earnest in early March, however for weeks was restricted in availability to essentially the most symptomatic instances. This led to very excessive positivity charges in April, which progressively declined because the epidemic was introduced beneath management by social distancing measures, and extra folks have been in a position to get assessments. Testing continued to develop each month since, which allowed town to identify the start of the second wave in September, when it was nonetheless confined to some neighborhoods.

Queens and Brooklyn have bigger populations than the opposite boroughs, so they have an inclination to have extra instances, however when normalized for inhabitants, Staten Island and the Bronx have usually seen extra positives every week. That is significantly true throughout the second wave, with Staten Island outstripping the opposite boroughs.

Beginning on 4/1, the New York Division of Well being began to launch optimistic instances by Zip Code info. You may see totals for your entire epidemic, in addition to attainable demographic associations, at our bigger model of the map.

We have charted the optimistic case zip code knowledge in a scatterplot. On common, the decrease earnings, older, and extra various a neighborhood is, the extra optimistic instances it’ll have. Bronchial asthma charges and bigger family measurement additionally present a optimistic affiliation with instances. Inhabitants density exhibits a destructive affiliation with instances, primarily as a result of Manhattan, the place ZIP codes are densest, has had decrease case charges to this point within the epidemic. Median age of a neighborhood exhibits no clear affiliation, in all probability as a result of median age is insignificant in comparison with the opposite elements. You may study particular person neighborhoods and varied demographic elements on our bigger chart.

Hospitalizations

Hospitalizations

Over time, critical instances of COVID will put sufferers within the hospital, and as soon as they’re unable to breath on their very own, into the Intensive Care Unit. After a determined wrestle to construct emergency hospital beds in April, it turned out that town’s current beds have been principally sufficient, and within the months since, spare capability has hovered round 20%.

In the course of the first wave of the epidemic, the Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn had extra new hospitalizations per capita, however as a result of Brooklyn and Queens are bigger, they’d extra whole new hospitalizations.

The very best measure of a hospital’s means to reply to extra COVID instances is spare ICU mattress capability, as a result of essentially the most critical instances require remedy solely out there within the Intensive Care Unit. The map above tracks capability out there utilizing “staffed grownup” ICU beds, ie. these grownup beds which can be each out there and have workers to attend them. It’s not uncommon for a hospital to purpose to maintain most of its ICU beds full, as a result of staffing empty beds price cash, however charges near 100% can sign a hospital is near being overwhelmed with instances.

Hospitalizations

Deaths

COVID has a fatality charge between 0.5% and 1%, and New York Metropolis has suffered extra deaths than some other metropolis within the nation. On April 14th, the NYC Division of Well being started reporting “possible deaths”- individuals who had COVID listed as a reason for dying on their dying certificates, along with deaths of individuals with confirmed COVID assessments. This raised the variety of COVID deaths within the metropolis by about 40%. This nonetheless could not embrace all COVID deaths, as extra seemingly unrelated deaths could ultimately be categorised as brought on by COVID. From February 1 by October 2, the CDC estimates there have been about 26,000 extra deaths within the metropolis, in comparison with historic averages.

In the course of the first wave, the Bronx had the next per-capita dying charge than the remainder of the boroughs, however as a result of Brooklyn and Queens have extra inhabitants, they’d the best dying totals. In the course of the second wave, deaths have to this point been fairly low in comparison with what occurred in April, however Staten Island has been barely above the opposite boroughs on a per-capita foundation.

On Could 18th, town launched knowledge on deaths by zipcode. Neighborhoods with essentially the most instances tended to have the very best numbers of deaths, however the maps of instances and deaths don’t coincide precisely.

We have created a set of scatterplots exploring the correlations between deaths and demographic elements, throughout the NYC zip codes. Normally, ZIP codes that are poorer, extra various, or have bigger households or greater bronchial asthma charges, have greater charges of COVID deaths. Inhabitants density is negatively related to deaths, primarily as a result of denser ZIP codes in Manhattan have much less deaths. A ZIP code’s median age doesn’t appear to have a powerful correlation with deaths, in all probability as a result of different elements outweigh that affiliation. You may learn extra about our findings in a publish on Gothamist.

Demographics

Demographics

Every day the New York Metropolis Division of Well being releases demographic knowledge on COVID-19 deaths. The vast majority of those that die of COVID are aged 65+ and/or these with pre-existing well being situations, which the DOH defines as: “Diabetes, Lung Illness, Most cancers, Immunodeficiency, Coronary heart Illness, Hypertension, Bronchial asthma, Kidney Illness, and GI/Liver Illness.” Notice: these demographics embrace “confirmed” COVID instances solely, and exclude “possible” deaths.

Older folks, poorer folks, males, and African-American and Latino New Yorkers, have been identified, hospitalized, and died at a lot greater charges than different teams.

Antibodies

Antibodies

After an individual has survived an encounter with coronavirus, their physique produces antibodies, that are detectable on a check for a interval of weeks or months, however which fade over time. After the large outbreak in April, and with restricted antibody testing, charges have been very excessive; as extra folks have been in a position to get testing and antibodies from earlier publicity started to fade, the positivity charge settled in at round 20% of all antibody assessments carried out in New York Metropolis. We have no idea if antibodies confer whole or partial immunity to the virus, or if that’s the case, how lengthy that immunity lasts. The human immune system is advanced, and will construct different defenses to coronavirus as soon as uncovered, corresponding to T-cell response, which isn’t measured in an antibody check.

This map exhibits the overall outcomes of all antibody assessments performed by ZIP code, with neighborhoods that skilled the very best numbers of optimistic instances typically having the very best antibody charges.

COVID in NYS

COVID in New York State

About 42% of New York State residents dwell in New York Metropolis, so COVID stats for your entire state will are likely to mirror town’s stats. That is true for positivity, which exhibits the identical giant improve in April when testing was restricted, and for whole assessments, which have risen steadily since then. Nonetheless, when optimistic assessments, you see that throughout the second wave, the state suffered a extra pronounced rise than town, due to giant second-wave outbreaks in upstate counties. Equally, the rise in hospitalizations and deaths in New York State is extra pronounced than in New York Metropolis, due to these upstate outbreaks.

Notice on dates: in distinction to New York Metropolis, New York State releases its knowledge with no lag, by assigning each check, hospitalization, and dying to the day the report got here in, which implies that due to reporting delays, for the state knowledge, every day within the knowledge blends instances, hospitalizations, and deaths that truly occurred over a interval of current days.

Sources: for this New York State part, we’re getting our knowledge from the New York State Division of Well being, partially by way of the COVID Monitoring Challenge.

This chart lets you have a look at positivity charges, new instances, and whole assessments for every county in New York State. Notice that throughout the first wave, counties in and round New York Metropolis confirmed pronounced upticks, however throughout the second wave, we’re seeing extra counties upstate with traces transferring within the incorrect path.

This map exhibits the present state of affairs in every of the New York State counties, coloured by per capita inhabitants, to permit comparisons between counties.

Evaluating NYC

Evaluating New York to Different States

New York Metropolis was the epicenter of the outbreak in america in March and April. Since then, each different state has had its personal outbreak, and a few states have begun to strategy New York in whole per capita deaths. These numbers embrace each confirmed and possible deaths.

What is going to occur subsequent?

What Will Occur Subsequent?




IMHE projection showing declining deaths through June

There are lots of fashions that predict the way forward for the outbreak, however Governor Cuomo has repeatedly praised the Institute for Well being Metrics and Analysis’s COVID-19 mannequin. Of their 4/8 replace, the mannequin predicted falling deaths by the summer season, with whole deaths of 55,327 by August in New York State.

You’ll find a number of different fashions on the CDC’s web site.

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